Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm

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Submission Due Date:
04/19/2021
Citation Author(s):
Mostafa
Farrokhabadi
Submitted by:
Mostafa Farrokhabadi
Last updated:
Sat, 01/23/2021 - 21:34
DOI:
10.21227/67vy-bs34
License:
Creative Commons Attribution

Abstract 

Notice:

  • Data is now available to registered users.
  • Registrants should use an official academic, government, or industry instituition email. Personal emails will not be accepted. Please allow 24 hours for your email to be registered in the system.

 

The ongoing COVID-19 related shutdowns have had a profound impact on the electric demand profiles worldwide, as governments put strict mitigation and/or suppression measures in place. The global electrical demand plummeted around the planet in March, April, and May 2020, with countries such as Spain and Italy experiencing more than 20% decrease in their usual electric consumption. In view of such massive electric demand changes, electricity network operators are facing unprecedented challenges in scheduling energy resources, as energy forecasting systems struggle to provide an accurate demand prediction. In fact, power systems operational reliability highly depends on an accurate projection of the future demand and scheduling an appropriate mixture of generation resources accordingly. Particularly, day-ahead forecasts are critical in managing market operation uncertainty. Thus, recent changes expose operators to technical and financial risks, further reinforcing the adverse economic impacts of the pandemic.

 

Objective

This competition aims at a detailed analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 related measures on electricity demand, calling for strategies to mitigate the impact on day-ahead forecasting techniques’ performance. In particular, the competition is focused on day-ahead prediction of city-wide demand. The competition includes one-track only, deterministic forecasting of hourly load, 16 to 40 hours ahead.

 

Data

Data includes historical demand, historical weather observations, and historical weather forecasts. Data is obtained from a real-world utility and weather service providers, and thus may be contaminated with issues such as missing periods, anomalies, etc. Details of data will be provided to registered participants. 

 

Evaluation Format

The test data will cover 30 batches of 1-day each. Evaluation takes place in 30 phases. Contestant must provide a day-ahead forecast based on the most recent released data. More details with respect to submission rules will be released closer to the evaluation period.

 

Evaluation Metric

The final winners will be determined by the Technical Committee based on predictions mean absolute error (MAE) per phase, documentation, reproducibility, etc.

 

Important Dates:

  • Dec. 14, 2020: Historical data release
  • Mar. 1, 2021: Registration deadline
  • Mar. 15, 2021: Evaluation period starts – first batch of test data release
  • Apr. 13, 2021: Evaluation period ends – last batch of test data release
  • Apr. 19, 2021: Final report and code submission deadline
  • May 3, 2021: Winners announced

 

Prizes

  • 1st place: $5000 USD
  • 2nd place: $3500 USD
  • 3rd place: $1500 USD

 

Publication

The Technical Committee has currently submitted a Special Issue application to an IEEE PES journal, aimed at pre-approving the competition winners for publishing in the Special Issue. The Spcial Issue is currently pending approval from the IEEE PES Publication.

 

Registration Requirement

Registrants should use an official academic, government, or industry instituition email. Personal emails will not be accepted.

 

Technical Committee

  • Dr. Jethro Browell, University of Strathclyde, Scotland
  • Dr. Mostafa Farrokhabadi, BluWave-ai, Canada
  • Dr. Stephen Makonin, Simon Fraser University, Canada
  • Dr. Wencong Su, University of Michigan-Dearborn, US
  • Dr. Yi Wang, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

 

Competition Advisor:

  • Dr. Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, Canada

 

Sponsors

  • IEEE DataPort
  • IEEE PES PSOPE WG on Energy Forecasting and Analytics
  • IEEE Foundation Donor Supported Program
  • Data is provided courtesy of BluWave-ai. 

 

Contact

Comments

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Novalio Daratha

Dear Sir/Madam,

My name is Haftu Reda. I am interested to participate in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition aims on a very timely power engineering issue and it seems to be related to my PhD research. I believe that my participation would be very important to me and to our research hub at the University. I would be very eager to apply my skills, to learn about the challenges and to produce tangible outcomes to the research field.

I greatly appreciate your consideration of my request.

Hello,
I am Vinayak Sharma, a PhD student at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. My research interest is on energy forecasting and it perfectly aligns with the competition. I would like to participate in the competition. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.
Thank you,
Vinayak Sharma
vsharm12@uncc.edu

Dear Dr. Farrokhabadi,

I would like to participate in the competition as it will help me with my research for my Masters thesis.

Thank you.

Marwan

Dear Sir/Madam,
I am a student from Hunan University. My research thesis is about the load forcasting, I am interested to participate the day- ahead electricity demand forcasting.
Thank you.
Yixiu Guo

Hello,
I am a Ph.D. student from Bielefeld University (Germany).
The competition is closely connected to my research topic.
Thus, I would like to participate in the competition.

Thank you,
Andrea Castellani

Respected Sir/ Madam,

I am a Ph.D. student from National Institute of Technology Patna, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition is related to my PhD research work. Participation in this competition will be helpful to me and will boost my research. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.

Thanking you in Anticipation.
Harsh Wardhan Pandey

Hello there,

I'm Chun Fu, a PhD student from National University of Singapore.
I'm hoping to participate in this competition to further explore opportunities to save energy in buildings or grids.
Here's my email address: chunfu@u.nus.edu
Thanks!

Sincerely,
Chun Fu

Respected Sir/ Madam,

I am a PhD student from National Institute of Technology Patna, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition is related to my PhD research work. Participation in this competition will be helpful to me and will boost my research. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.

Thanking you in Anticipation.
Harsh Wardhan Pandey

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,
Miha

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Wenlong Liao

Kindly share the data and allow us to participate in the competition. My research group works in forecasting of energy market and load, restructuring and deregulation. My team would like to participate in this competition.

我们想参加比赛。我的研究小组致力于能源负荷的预测,这将是一个学习的好机会。

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Rakesh

I am a PhD student from Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology Patiala, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition.This will be a good opportunity for me .
I thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,
Neelam Rani

Dear Sir/Madam,

I am a master's degree graduate in power engineering from the University of Sydney, Australia, currently working as application technology engineer in power distribution-related industry in Malaysia. I am interested to participate in this IEEE DataPort Data Competition because it is highly related with my technical background and interest.

Thank you very much.

Best regards,
Dody Ismoyo, B.Eng, M.Eng

Dataset Files

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