Model 2.6
- Citation Author(s):
-
Konstantinos Theodorakos
- Submitted by:
- Konstantinos Theodorakos
- Last updated:
Abstract
Model 2.6
Clustered-meter average monthly ratios
Monthly (kWh) consumption clustering:
1. Twelve clustering models (one per month of signup): Spectral Clustering.
2. Clustering using (daily kWh) consumption extracted features. Cluster count set to 4 (empirically better than the 5 or 6 suggested by the elbow distortion method).
Features (170) from weekend/weekday and full series:
- Statistical: median, variance, quantiles, ...
- Time-series: autocorrelations, trends, seasonalities, ...
Forecasting for a meter: Using the mean montly consumption + in-cluster month-to-month ratios.
Preprocessing:
- Daily resampling.
Post-processing:
- Robust STL LOESS decomposition: trend.
