Model 2.13
- Citation Author(s):
-
Konstantinos Theodorakos
- Submitted by:
- Konstantinos Theodorakos
- Last updated:
Abstract
Model 2.12
Clustered-meter average monthly ratios
Monthly (kWh) consumption clustering:
1. Twelve clustering models (one per month of signup): Sub-space euclidean Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) clustering.
2. Clustering using (daily kWh) consumption extracted features. Cluster count set to 2-6: Adjusted (with penalty term for cluster count un-evenness) silhouette index choses the cluster count.
Forecasting for a meter: Using the mean monthly consumption + in-cluster month-to-month ratios.
Clustering
Features (170) from weekend/weekday and full series:
- Statistical: median, variance, quantiles, ...
- Time-series: autocorrelations, trends, seasonalities, ...
- Dimensionality reduction: 20 components of Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP).
- Normalization: zero mean, STDEV 1 standardization.
