Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm

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Submission Due Date:
04/19/2021
Citation Author(s):
Mostafa
Farrokhabadi
Submitted by:
Mostafa Farrokhabadi
Last updated:
Wed, 04/14/2021 - 12:40
DOI:
10.21227/67vy-bs34
License:
Creative Commons Attribution

Abstract 

Leaderboard (numbers are kW MAE):

Teams with more than 5 missing submissions are eliminated from the leaderboard.

 

Team2021-02-102021-02-112021-02-122021-02-132021-02-142021-02-152021-02-16OverallMissed
Team 420054330139569902121901825012844108440
Team 1455944514128711136586151793431319118490
Team 7210539743884911975161092925727890118900
Team 361566310483632516798229391728313074122801
Team 191894563347169744311695237609723123170
Team 23147957669942913480202981819722556139470
Team 91065313393873716456222711696012212142030
Team 251940768361034016130215442312421696142630
Team 13145657811854312442227382861032503145792
Team 261896612936987219801327912695432503153803
Benchmark1896612139994517229256332695432503155150
Team 21138329164114989914175021868324633155863
Team 181666377041136212725222792184322487156260
Team 283320811495904816302186052067132503158821
Team 126409120661049216281187312695440331165892
Team 29151108069886814235228081809532503170883
Team 6199197836590911039236992178819685174320
Team 274269222883994521320212192664934078184171
Team 10375191433787455784105963046138989194830
Team 118325197731027717229209861677317674214385
Team 220408237652036841636578331289320241668930

 

Notice:

  • Data is now available to registered users.
  • Registration closed on March 1, 2021.
  • Submissions are also accepted by sending the csv file to mostafa.farrokhabadi@ieee.org, using the same email subject as the file name.
  • Evaluation period ended on April 14, 2021.
  • Reporting period is ongoing.
  • Final report should provide:
    • The name, email, and affiliation of all the team members;
    • Diagram and description of models used throughout the evaluation period (max 2 pages);
    • The training and inference codes for all the models used throughout the evaluation period;
    • A readme file explaining codes execution and dependencies.

 

The ongoing COVID-19 related shutdowns have had a profound impact on the electric demand profiles worldwide, as governments put strict mitigation and/or suppression measures in place. The global electrical demand plummeted around the planet in March, April, and May 2020, with countries such as Spain and Italy experiencing more than 20% decrease in their usual electric consumption. In view of such massive electric demand changes, electricity network operators are facing unprecedented challenges in scheduling energy resources, as energy forecasting systems struggle to provide an accurate demand prediction. In fact, power systems operational reliability highly depends on an accurate projection of the future demand and scheduling an appropriate mixture of generation resources accordingly. Particularly, day-ahead forecasts are critical in managing market operation uncertainty. Thus, recent changes expose operators to technical and financial risks, further reinforcing the adverse economic impacts of the pandemic.

 

Objective

This competition aims at a detailed analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 related measures on electricity demand, calling for strategies to mitigate the impact on day-ahead forecasting techniques’ performance. In particular, the competition is focused on day-ahead prediction of city-wide demand. The competition includes one-track only, deterministic forecasting of hourly load, 16 to 40 hours ahead.

 

Data

Data includes historical demand, historical weather observations, and historical weather forecasts. Data is obtained from a real-world utility and weather service providers, and thus may be contaminated with issues such as missing periods, anomalies, etc. Details of data will be provided to registered participants. 

 

Evaluation Format

The test data will cover 30 batches of 1-day each. Evaluation takes place in 30 phases. Contestant must provide a day-ahead forecast based on the most recent released data. More details with respect to submission rules will be released closer to the evaluation period.

 

Evaluation Metrics

  • Participants with 6 or more missed submissions will be disqualified from the competition.
  • Missed submissions of remaining participants, if any, will be replaced by the competition naïve benchmark. The technical committee will use its discretion to make sure that missed submissions have minimal impact on the final ranking after the final submission.
  • Participants will be ranked based on the MAE of the entire evaluation period.
  • In the event of a tie (defined as statistically insignificant difference in MAE) the organisers reserve the right to decide final, potentially joint, placings at their discretion following analysis of forecast performance and receipt of documentation.

 

Submission Rules

  • Each day during the evaluation period, a new file will be uploaded between 12:30-1 PM EST, containing data up to 8 AM of same day.
  • Submission for day-ahead forecasts of 16 to 40 hours ahead are allowed up to 11 AM EST of next day.
  • Submissions should be in CSV format.
  • CSV file name should be “Target Month-Target day-Last name-First Name”; for example, if the file being submitted contains predictions for March 21 (being submitted between March 20, 1 PM EST to March 21, 11 AM EST), the file name would be March-21-Farrokhabadi-Mostafa.csv
  • The submitted CSV files should contain one single column of 24 float values; no header is accepted.
  • Those submitting results as a group will be given the opportunity to include other members’ name in the final report and code submission.
  • Multiple submissions under same name and/or email will be disqualified. Submission under emails other than those registered will be disqualified.
  • Use of any exogenous input data, of any sort, except those already provided, will disqualify the participant.
  • Submissions violating any of the above will be disqualified.
  • The Technical Committee reserves the right to disqualify any submission deemed ineligible.

 

Benchmark

A naive benchmark is included for reference and to fill up to five missing entries from participants. The benchmark forecast for day D is the load from the most recent complete day of the same type available at the time of making the forecast (8AM on D-1). Day types are Saturday, Sunday and Weekday.

 

Important Dates

  • Dec. 14, 2020: Historical data release
  • Mar. 1, 2021: Registration deadline
  • Mar. 15, 2021: Evaluation period starts – first batch of test data release
  • Apr. 13, 2021: Evaluation period ends – last batch of test data release
  • Apr. 19, 2021: Final report and code submission deadline
  • May 3, 2021: Winners announced

 

Prizes

  • 1st place: $5000 USD
  • 2nd place: $3500 USD
  • 3rd place: $1500 USD

 

Publication

IEEE OAJPE is running a new call for papers for Special Section on “COVID-19 Impact on Electrical Grid Operation: Analysis and Mitigation”. The winners of the competition are pre-approved for submission in the SS. For more information, please visit the SS link.

 

Registration Requirement

  • Registrants should use an official academic, government, or industry instituition email. Personal emails will not be accepted.
  • The winners’ identity will be verified through official government-issued IDs before the announcement of winners.

 

Technical Committee

  • Dr. Jethro Browell, University of Strathclyde, Scotland
  • Dr. Mostafa Farrokhabadi, BluWave-ai, Canada
  • Dr. Stephen Makonin, Simon Fraser University, Canada
  • Dr. Wencong Su, University of Michigan-Dearborn, US
  • Dr. Yi Wang, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

 

Competition Advisor

  • Dr. Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, Canada

 

Sponsors

  • IEEE DataPort
  • IEEE PES PSOPE WG on Energy Forecasting and Analytics
  • IEEE Foundation Donor Supported Program
  • Data is provided courtesy of BluWave-ai. 

 

Contact

 

Note: The Technical Committee reserves the right to amend the rules and regulations without giving prior notification or any reasons thereof.

Instructions: 

Please refer to the above Submission Rules.

Comments

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Novalio Daratha

Dear Sir/Madam,

My name is Haftu Reda. I am interested to participate in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition aims on a very timely power engineering issue and it seems to be related to my PhD research. I believe that my participation would be very important to me and to our research hub at the University. I would be very eager to apply my skills, to learn about the challenges and to produce tangible outcomes to the research field.

I greatly appreciate your consideration of my request.

Hello,
I am Vinayak Sharma, a PhD student at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. My research interest is on energy forecasting and it perfectly aligns with the competition. I would like to participate in the competition. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.
Thank you,
Vinayak Sharma
vsharm12@uncc.edu

Dear Dr. Farrokhabadi,

I would like to participate in the competition as it will help me with my research for my Masters thesis.

Thank you.

Marwan

Dear Sir/Madam,
I am a student from Hunan University. My research thesis is about the load forcasting, I am interested to participate the day- ahead electricity demand forcasting.
Thank you.
Yixiu Guo

Hello,
I am a Ph.D. student from Bielefeld University (Germany).
The competition is closely connected to my research topic.
Thus, I would like to participate in the competition.

Thank you,
Andrea Castellani

Respected Sir/ Madam,

I am a Ph.D. student from National Institute of Technology Patna, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition is related to my PhD research work. Participation in this competition will be helpful to me and will boost my research. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.

Thanking you in Anticipation.
Harsh Wardhan Pandey

Hello there,

I'm Chun Fu, a PhD student from National University of Singapore.
I'm hoping to participate in this competition to further explore opportunities to save energy in buildings or grids.
Here's my email address: chunfu@u.nus.edu
Thanks!

Sincerely,
Chun Fu

Respected Sir/ Madam,

I am a PhD student from National Institute of Technology Patna, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition. The project competition is related to my PhD research work. Participation in this competition will be helpful to me and will boost my research. I would appreciate your consideration of my request.

Thanking you in Anticipation.
Harsh Wardhan Pandey

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,
Miha

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Wenlong Liao

Kindly share the data and allow us to participate in the competition. My research group works in forecasting of energy market and load, restructuring and deregulation. My team would like to participate in this competition.

我们想参加比赛。我的研究小组致力于能源负荷的预测,这将是一个学习的好机会。

Dear Sir,

I would like to participate in the competition. This will be a good opportunity for me and my students in learning to solve real engineering problem in electricity sector.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

Rakesh

I am a PhD student from Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology Patiala, India. I am interested in participating in the IEEE DataPort Data Competition.This will be a good opportunity for me .
I thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,
Neelam Rani

Dear Sir/Madam,

I am a master's degree graduate in power engineering from the University of Sydney, Australia, currently working as application technology engineer in power distribution-related industry in Malaysia. I am interested to participate in this IEEE DataPort Data Competition because it is highly related with my technical background and interest.

Thank you very much.

Best regards,
Dody Ismoyo, B.Eng, M.Eng

Dear Organizers

We would like to participate in the competition.

Our team is a cooperation Academia-Industry.

We thank you very much for your help.

Best regards,

_________________________________
Sergio Rivera, E.E, PhD, IEEE Senior Member
Head of Electrical Engineering Doctoral and Master Programs
Associate Professor
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
email: srriverar@unal.edu.co

I would like to participate in this competition as it fits my ongoing research activities as a PhD student.

Best Regards,
Akylas Stratigakos

I am a master's degree graduate from the Sharif University of Technology. I am willing to participate in this competition. I believe that my Machine Learning (ML) skills and my background in power systems would help me fulfill this task.

Best regards,
Ali Arjomandi Nezhad

A.Arjomandi@alum.sharif.edu

I would like to participate in the competition.

Regards,

email: phillipe.vilaca@urjc.es

I would like to participate in the competition.
Can you give me access?
cherry4952@konkuk.ac.kr

I'm a master's student at Lakehead University, and my research area includes the forecasting of power consumption. I have experience in creating a forecast model of one day-ahead energy consumption of the local grid. I want to participate in the competition.

Best regards,
Jiawei Dong

jdong4@lakeheadu.ca

Dataset Files

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